The Town Crier rates tactical, economic and political progress.
During the past few years, the Brookings Institution has produced a regular report about progress in Iraq. The most recent edition, released in October, displays charts of military, economic and other types of change. As in past reports, the results are mixed, but there are also signs of real improvement.
Casualties of Americans and Iraqis have been higher in 2007 than in any other year. Hidden within this grim fact, however, is some welcome news. It turns out that the first few months of the year were among the most violent of the war. Nonetheless, during the past six months, there has been a dramatic downward trend in deaths and injuries among both soldiers and civilians.
During November 2006, for example, 3,500 Iraqi civilians were killed. In recent months, that number has fallen to about 1,600.
There also appears to be a precipitous drop in bombing casualties. In January, 704 civilians were killed and 1,600 injured in bombing incidents. Recently, the monthly numbers declined to 190 killed and 443 injured.
There are several explanations for the decline in the number of casualties. First, Gen. David Petraeus’ surge strategy in Baghdad appears to have paid off. Security in that city has improved. The drop may also be attributed to a decline in ethnic conflict between the Sunnis and Shiites. It is possible that mixed neighborhoods have simply been “cleansed” of minorities so that the remaining communities are predominantly one ethnic group. There is no one left to kill.
A more positive development is that many Sunnis are turning away from al-Qaida. It appears that many tribal leaders in Anbar are not comfortable with the Taliban-like policies of al-Qaida’s followers. They also fear that their leadership in the region is threatened. Petraeus says that this development took him by surprise. It turns out that one of our main allies in Iraq is al-Qaida. Its extremist policies are alienating potential supporters.
Finally, there has been a dramatic decline in U.S. casualties from improvised explosive devices. The 82 American soldiers killed in May by IEDs fell to 25 deaths in September. Some experts think that Iran, where the more sophisticated devices are manufactured, may be responding to U.S. warnings by cutting off supplies.
Some economic indicators have been surprisingly resistant to change. Oil production peaked at 2.5 million barrels per day before the war. Four-and-a-half years later, production hovers around 2 million barrels a day. Electricity production is still 1,000 megawatts short of the 2004 goal of 6,000 megawatts.
Unemployment remains extraordinarily high. For the past 2½ years, the unemployment rate of 25 to 40 percent hasn’t changed. Remarkably, the per capita income of Iraqis has improved during the past several years. It is anyone’s guess about what will happen to Iraq’s economy after the U.S. ceases to spend so much in the country.
There is reason to be cautious about the military progress during the past few months. The trend has been positive for only six months and could moderate or reverse. Casualty rates have improved, but they are still high.
Some might conclude that we are winning and that victory is just beyond our grasp. Clearly, our tactical situation has improved, but wars are not won because the body counts have become more favorable. All wars are fought for political reasons. Winning must be defined by whether we have achieved our political objectives.
Petraeus’ reason for the recent surge was to give the Iraqis space to move toward reconciliation of the Kurds, Sunnis and Shiites. Yet the U.S. Government Accountability Office says that only three of 18 benchmarks set by the U.S. have been met. Nearly half of the cabinet members have pulled out of the government, and several parties have boycotted the legislature in the past six months. The Iraqi government has yet to develop an oil-sharing law or an amnesty program.
Last week, Gen. Ricardo Sanchez, the past commander of coalition forces in Iraq, said, “The improvements in security produced by the courage and blood of our troops have not been matched by a willingness on the part of Iraqi leaders to make the hard choices necessary to bring peace to their country.”
The tactical section of the Iraq report card shows improvement, the economic section is mixed, but the most important part, the political section, must read, “needs improvement.”
• Mickey McGuire, a retired high school social studies teacher, is among a select group of local residents rotating their columns in the Sunday Tracy Press.
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